Cold Picks is a public journal of systematic football betting. Not a tipster service, not a sales pitch. Documentation of a data-driven approach where strong favourites at low odds are backed, tracked over time, to see whether the maths holds up.

Every pick is logged. Every win and loss is documented. The cumulative graph, the monthly results, the drawdowns, all public.

No. Picks are free to subscribers, no subscriptions, no upsells, no premium tier. Historical results are public on this site. You pay nothing. I earn nothing on your picks.

If you want to support the project, you can buy me a coffee. Completely optional.

"Cold" as in emotionless. No gut-feel, no hot streaks, no excitement-driven decisions. Just data, rules, and the discipline to follow them, especially after a losing streak.

Most betting losses come from emotion, not bad picks. The cold approach removes that variable entirely.

Through 14 systematic strategies, each built on 10+ years of backtested data. Three core criteria:

(1) League selection, only leagues where the strategy delivered profit historically.
(2) Strong favourites at low odds (avg 1.36).
(3) Flat staking, same percentage of bankroll every bet, no chasing.

No human intuition involved. The full breakdown per strategy is on the Strategy page.

In theory, yes. In practice, no. Low odds mean a higher win rate, a more stable bankroll, and far fewer emotional decisions.

The maths of consistent +5% yield on 1000+ bets per year is stronger than chasing occasional big wins on high odds. Slow, boring, and structurally profitable beats fast, exciting, and broke.

Honestly: 462 bets is too small a sample to call it "proven". The 10+ year backtests across thousands of matches suggest a real structural edge in tightly filtered leagues. So far the live tracking is consistent with that.

But yields erode as markets become more efficient. Bookmakers limit winners. Variance is real. The honest framing is cautiously optimistic, not confident.

Variable. Some days 3 to 5 picks, some days zero (when no match meets the criteria). On average around 60 to 80 picks per month.

The newsletter goes out before kick-off, only on days where qualifying picks exist. No filler, no "feel like a pick today".

Three steps, no app or platform required:

(1) Subscribe to the newsletter to receive the picks before kick-off.
(2) Open your preferred bookmaker, the picks work with any bookie.
(3) Place the bets manually on the matches and odds in the email.

No copy-trading, no automated betting, no shared accounts. You stay in full control.

I use a flat 5% of my bankroll on every pick. Same percentage, every bet, no exceptions. This is part of the discipline.

But you're free to choose your own staking plan. Some prefer 1 to 2% for lower variance, some prefer fixed-unit staking (e.g. €10 per pick regardless of bankroll). What matters most is consistency: pick a plan and stick to it. No doubling after losses, no chasing.

Four main ones, no sugar-coating:

(1) Variance. An 80% win rate still means 20% losses. Losing streaks of 3 to 5 bets are normal.
(2) Drawdowns. April 2026 was down €180. Part of the system. The maths recovers, the emotion often doesn't.
(3) Bookmaker limits. Consistent winners get limited or banned. Structural constraint.
(4) Market shifts. Edges erode as markets become more efficient. Strategies need to evolve.

18+ only. Gambling can be addictive. Treat it as a hobby with rules, not an income stream.

Yes, completely optional and 100% non-financial. Buy me a coffee if the project is useful to you. That keeps things free and independent, no sponsors, no affiliate deals with bookmakers.

The most valuable form of support, honestly: share the project with someone who needs a more disciplined approach to betting. Word of mouth keeps it alive.